Monday, April 6, 2009

Updated Predictions for the NBA Playoffs


With only a week and two days left in the NBA season I thought I would do a final prediction for what the playoff match ups will be. Let's start in the east.

8. Chicago Bulls - I was horribly wrong and I can admit it. New Jersey has no chance here. They completely fell apart. In my defense, the Harris injury in late March really killed them, but he didn't miss that much time. They should have been much better. So, I'll give in and pick Chicago. They've been playing pretty well, have the rookie of the year, and could even be the 7th seed given how bad the Pistons are playing. No one below them is going to catch up this late in the season. The Bobcats just can't make up that much ground.

7. Detroit Pistons - As I stated they could be the 8 seed since they seem to have forgotten how to play. Their chemistry is a mess with Iverson and Wallace and they are clearly a border playoff team. Can they hold of Chicago...well, we'll see. In any case they're going to get obliterated in the playoffs no matter what.

6. Philadelphia 76rs - Again this is pretty close to call. It could easily be Miami here, considering how close they are in standings. But, I'm giving the edge to Miami because they have Dwayne Wade and the Heat. That leaves Philly in the 6 spot.

5. Miami Heat -Finally I'm sticking to one of my predictions. Miami could fall to the 6th seed, but I don't see them moving up to the 4 spot and I think Wade will push them to stay with a more favorable match up in the playoffs.

4. Atlanta Hawks - Too far behind to catch up to the big boys in the east and too good to fall down and give up home court to Miami or Philadelphia, that's where Atlanta is.

3. Boston Celtics - I could be a pansy and pick Orlando here, but I won't. I really think Orlando can manage the 2 spot. Boston's been great even without Garnet, but I still think they'd rather be healthy than battle for a higher playoff spot.

2. Orlando Magic - I saw them blowout the Cavs on Thursday and I couldn't possibly put them lower than this. They looked downright dominant.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - No surprise here. They stumbled a little bit over the weekend, but I think it was exactly the fuel they needed to finish strong and push them through the playoffs. They still want the best record in the NBA (and home court in the finals) and I think they'll get it.

First Round:

Cavs destroy the Bulls in 4 or 5 games.

Orlando will pretty easily defeat the Pistons. Who is going to match up against Dwight Howard? They'll take it in 5.

Boston will get through Philly, but it will be a challenge, especially if Garnett is still hurting. It'll go 6 or 7 games, but Boston's home court will be the deciding factor.

Miami and Atlanta will go at it and it will be brutal…not to mention fun to watch. The Heat will be victorious in 6 or 7 games because we already know Wade good is enough to win a series on his own.

Second Round:

Cavs and Heat will be great entertainment. Two of the best will go head to head (James and Wade). But Wade doesn't have much help and LBJ has a title contending supporting cast. Cleveland will win in 5.

Boston and Orlando will be a very physical series. Neither team will back down and it will be a dog fight. I want to say Orlando will win because I just don't know how healthy Boston will be. Not to mention I think they're going to have a tougher first round series. But, I'm not betting against the champs, not yet at least. Boston in 7 games. They may have regrets about not getting home court advantage though.

Conference Finals:

Cleveland is just too good and the defending champs will be just a little too tired to keep up with them. I think Boston might be able to win one series without home court against a good team, but I don't see them winning a second against the best team in the NBA. Cleveland is almost unstoppable at home (37-1). Sorry Boston, but LBJ is going to his second finals. Cleveland in 7.

Now to the West

8. Dallas Mavericks - They could overtake the Jazz at the 7 spot, I think the deciding game will come on Wednesday. But, for right now I think they'll stay put at number 8. Call me a homer.

7. Utah Jazz - I go ahead and give the Jazz the 4 seed in my last predictions and what do they go and do? Blow it. They had a solid chance at getting a higher seed, but they just plain suck on the road (and lose give me games at home to the likes of Minnesota's bench). Boozer isn't playing how he used to and I think there's some trouble in the locker room because of it. They had a big win against New Orleans and if they manage to beat Dallas on Wednesday they even have a shot at the 6 seed. But, really, they'll be lucky staying here at the 7 spot. Something is off about a team that can build a 20 point lead and then lose it in the span of 5 minutes.

6. New Orleans Hornets - Not having Chandler hurts. They are a solid team, but are missing that interior presence. Paul and West will keep them afloat, but I don't think they'll catch up to Portland.

5. Portland Trailblazers - This team just plays good competitive basketball and get pretty consistent contributions from everyone. They won't slip to the lowly Jazz and the struggling Hornets...at least I don't think they will.

4. San Antonio Spurs - They could stay at the 3 spot, but I just have to many questions to put them there in my predictions. The big three are good, but are they healthy enough? Who is coming of the bench that actually makes an impact?

3. Houston Rockets - Just a good team here. Not great, but better than those behind them.

2. Denver Nuggets - The way they handled the Jazz last week showed me that this isn't the Nuggets of past years. They actually play defense. They actually make the extra pass. They even show up for big games. This is a very good team and they're showing it when it counts most. They have won 7 in a row and are peaking at the right time.

1. L.A. Lakers - They just keep winning. They long ago wrapped up the best record in the West, can they get the best NBA record? What will Bynum coming back mean? These two stories will mean more in the playoffs.

First Round:

Lakers will destroy anyone they come across in the first round. Lakers in 4 or 5.

Portland will give the Spurs a run for their money. They'll be a tough out, but the Spurs will have home court and experience. That's too much for the young Blazers to compete against. Spurs in 6.

Houston and New Orleans will be a 7 game series and both teams will play well, but Chris Paul is another guy who can win a series all by himself. And that's what he'll do, breaking the hearts of Houston fans and Yao Ming, who just can't get out of the first round.

Call me a homer if you must, but I think the Jazz would win in a 7 game series with the Nuggets. Yes, the Jazz have trouble on the road, and yes they seem like they are self destructing. But it seemed that way the last two years and the Jazz went out on the road in the playoffs and won both series. It'll be a 7 game series, but the Jazz have experience in this kind of situation and if they can turn things around they still have a very talented roster. They just have to show up. Jazz in 7.

Second Round:

LA and San Antonio have a history of great playoff series and this one won't be any different. There will be blood. But, in the end LA is just too deep, long, and athletic for the Spurs to compete against. LA in 6.

New Orleans and Utah. DWill vs. CP3. It will be a great match up and in the past it's usually gone Williams' way. He probably will play better than CP3, but, I have trouble believing the Jazz will take two series away from home against quality opponents. I barely believe they can beat Denver, so there is no way I think they can beat New Orleans. This isn't a one on one game and for that reason I've got to pick the New Orleans. The Hornets will take it in 6 or 7.

Conference Finals:

New Orleans doesn't have the depth to their roster that LA does. It will be fun to watch, but I don't think it will be all that challenging for the Lakers to win in 6.

NBA Finals:

I am still picking Cleveland over the Lakers. It'll be a battle, but Lebron is for real and so are the Cavs. Cleveland in 7. Kobe will yet again be asked to describe how Shaq's butt tastes.

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