Predictions for the 09 NBA Playoffs

The 2008/2009 NBA season is almost half way over. So I thought I’d try and predict which teams will make it into the playoffs and where they will be seeded. Let’s start off with the Easter Conference.

8. New Jersey – Yes, right now they’re 7th in the east, but I think Philadelphia will end up ahead of them, thus knocking them to the 8th spot. Milwaukee will be right there with them, but the way Devin Harris and Brooke Lopez are playing I think they’ll still make the playoffs.

7. Philadelphia – They will knock NJ out of the 7th spot, but won’t go much higher than that. I think it’d be hard to catch up with teams ahead of them considering they will still need adjustment once Elton Brand is back in the lineup.

6. Miami – Dwayne Wade can only carry you so far and the 6th spot is pretty damn far. Michael Beasley will improve and they may get some more help if they end up trading Marion before the deadline, hopefully in the form of a big.

5. Atlanta – It’s Atlanta, I’m sorry, I just can’t see them any higher than this despite how well they played the first half of the season. I don’t know if Mike Bibby can keep playing at this level, but they definitely have enough to get the 5th or possibly 4th spot.

4. Detroit – Okay, I’ll admit, I don’t know what to think of this team. They could go on a tear given how much talent they have and still catch up to the 3rd spot. But they just look lost out there. They have no identity after trading Chauncey and the chemistry is definitely not what it should be. But, when you have Rip, Iverson, Sheed, and Stuckey I don’t think you can slip too far. They won’t go far in the playoffs, but I think it’s safe to say they’ll be the 4th or 5th spot.

3. Orlando – This is a great team. Unfortunately for them there are two better teams ahead of them. I expect them to keep rolling, but Boston has already caught up and Cleveland will stay ahead of them.

2. Boston – They have struggled mightily the last few weeks and they definitely don’t have the same swagger they once did. Their bench is a big issue and I think they’re going to have to make a deal before the trade deadline. But, they still have KG, Paul and Allen. They’re going to be okay. Besides, they’ve shown they can put a gigantic run together if they need to. But I think Cleveland will still squeak out with the number 1 spot.

1. Cleveland – At the beginning of this season I was a huge doubter of this team. I thought adding Mo was a good move, but didn’t make this team that much better. Boy was I wrong. James is playing out of his mind (thankfully I picked him up in my fantasy league). They’re playing good defense and are unbeatable at home. King James will carry them to the number one spot; he simply wants it more than the Celtics do.

I expect the conference playoffs to go a little something like this:

First Round:
Cleveland will easily beat the 8th seed Nets, probably in a sweep or at the most 5 games.

Boston will take care of Philly in 5 or 6 games.

Orlando will have some trouble stopping Wade and Miami but will win in 7.

Atlanta will beat Detroit in 6 games and the Pistons reign will end.

Second Round:

Cleveland will stick it to Atlanta in probably 5 or 6 games. There is no way they can contain LBJ.

Boston will barely beat Orlando in a game 7. It will be a match up for the ages because Dwight Howard will be a beast.

Conference Finals:

Boston got the best of Cleveland last time, but James won’t let it happen again. He’s powered his team to the finals before and will do it again. The big three will tired of eliminating the Magic and won’t have enough left in the tank for Cleveland. It won’t hurt to have the home court advantage either. Cleveland will win in 6.

Now let’s move on to the Western Conference.

8. Houston – This is a tough choice, because I think Dallas has a shot at this spot too. But, I give the edge to Houston because if they get their team back from injuries they are much better than Dallas this year. That said, if T-Mac doesn’t come back well along with Artest they’re sunk. And if Yao goes down again, they can kiss the playoffs, and probably this roster goodbye.

7. Utah – The Jazz, like the Rockets have had plenty of injuries. In fact they haven’t had the roster they thought they would this entire season. But, they’ll continue to play well at home and win just enough to remain afloat until Boozer comes back after the All-Star break. They won’t catch up with anyone, but they’ll solidify their 7th seed spot and hope they can do damage in the playoffs. Again, if they continue to be plagued by injures, they too could be out of the playoffs.

6. Phoenix – Like Detroit, this team is a shell of its former self. But, with a resurgent Shaq and growing chemistry I think they’ll stay around the 6th seed. Nash has clearly lost a step, but is still one of the best point guards out there. Amare has been in a bit of a funk as of late, but I think he’ll start getting more shots once the chemistry comes together a bit more. I loved the Jason Richardson trade because he can put up points quickly and he shoots the three very effectively. While they aren’t what they used to be, they are flat out better and/or healthier than the teams behind them.

5. Portland – They have a lot of youth, so I don’t see them getting higher than a 5th seed. In fact they might even drop behind the Suns as the season progresses. But, I don’t think they end up missing the playoffs this year. They have strong coaching and a good leader in Brandon Roy. Aldridge is underrated and Oden and the other young guys should continue to progress.

4. New Orleans – Chris Paul is amazing, but the rest of his team? They’re mediocre, aside from West. Chandler is having a terrible season and while Posey is a great clutch guy and wonderful defender, they need a legitimate third option. They seem to lack the passion they had last year, maybe it’s because they’re waiting for the playoffs.

3. San Antonio Spurs– At the beginning of the season it looked like age had finally caught up with this team. Now, it looks like they’re ready for another championship run. Signing Roger Mason this last off-season was huge. The guy is great in clutch situations and compliments the team perfectly. Having him allows Manu to come off of the bench which is a huge asset for the Spurs. Duncan is still one of the most dominant players in the league and Tony Parker is a seasoned point guard who makes good decisions and can flat out score. They need help at center, but they’ve got enough to get the 2nd or 3rd seed.

2. Denver Nuggets– What a surprise Denver has been. They looked like they were going nowhere. They traded Camby and Iverson and I assumed they had thrown in the towel. But, Chauncey has been phenomenal. He’s given that team the leadership they’ve needed since Melo was drafted and has turned that team around. Nene is playing well and when Carmelo returns from his injury they’re going to be even tougher to beat. In my opinion they have the Northwest division all but wrapped up given that Utah and Portland are still struggling with injuries. They’ll be fighting with the Spurs for the 2nd seed and I’m giving them the edge because of the Billups factor.

1. LA Lakers – They’ve been like a steamroller this season. Their length can’t be matched by anyone and Kobe has been playing very well. No one in the west has the depth they do and I think the leadership of Fisher and Kobe will keep this team focused on locking up the number 1 spot.

I expect the conference playoffs to go a little something like this:

First Round:

LA will dismantle Houston even if they have their whole roster back from injury. The Lakers have too many ways to score and will have the benefit of having played together for longer. They take it in 5.

The Jazz take the Nuggets to the brink of elimination, but not having home court is the deciding factor. The Nuggets win in 7.

Once again it’s San Antonio and Phoenix. Unfortunately for the Suns, the outcome is the same once more. In will be a dog fight but the Spurs win it in 7.

In the playoffs biggest surprise the Blazers beat the Hornets. Paul will be dynamite, but the young guns of Portland will edge them out in 7 games.

Second Round:

No surprise here, the Lakers beat the Blazers handily in 5 or 6 games. The Lakers have too much and Portland is too inexperienced.

The Nuggets and San Antonio will slug it out for 6 games, but San Antonio will ultimately come out victorious. Roger Mason will continue to impress and the original big three, Parker, Ginobli, and Duncan will advance to the conference finals.

Conference Finals:

This will go seven games. Neither team will give an inch. But, LA will get to the finals for the second year in a row in a thrilling game 7. San Antonio simply won’t be able to contain Kobe and will get beat by their lack of size.

Now for the NBA Finals!

Cleveland will take on the Lakers in what will become a classic series. Lebron vs. Kobe. While the Lakers have the better team, the Cavs have the best player. My initial thought is to give it to the Lakers, but I just don’t see James getting to this stage again and not winning a championship. Somehow, some way, Lebron James will finally bring a championship to Cleveland after a duel with Kobe in game 7.