It's been nearly 2 months since I posted my predictions for the 09 NBA playoffs. Now that the season has about a month and a half left it's time to look back and see how I did and give my predictions a little update. Let's start off with the east.
8. New Jersey - Call me stubborn, but I'm sticking with them. Yes, they are still ranked in 10th in the east, but they only trail by a half game and the two teams in front of them aren't exactly a lock. Milwaukee is still dealing with injuries and I don't know if they have enough to hold onto the last playoff spot. Although, I thought they would have fallen off a long time ago when Redd went out for the season. Chicago has even less of a chance in opinion. I just don't like this team. Rose is great, but Deng is still injured and I just don't like the team's roster. I would be surprised if they actually made the playoffs in front of New Jersey, Milwaukee or Charlotte. Speaking of Charlotte, I actually had a tough time not choosing them for the final spot. They've been playing very well recently and could stun everyone by grabbing the last playoff berth. Still, I had New Jersey in my last predictions and I am not ready to change my mind. They have good guard play and a great center in Lopez.
7. Philadelphia - Again, I'm sticking with the team I had here before. Why? They aren't good enough to move much further ahead. Conceivably they could beat out Detroit for the 6th seed, but Detroit has been playing better lately. I think they'll stay at the seven spot and should be happy to do so given how bad the Brand signing seems to have been.
6. Detroit - Finally a change in my predictions. They've dropped from a 4 seed to a 6 seed. While they are playing much better now that Iverson isn't starting (or playing due to injury) they aren't going to catch the teams ahead of them. They've turned a corner that might pay off in the playoffs, but I think they're stuck where they are in the playoff position.
5. Miami - The team isn't that good. Beasley has been sort of a disappointment given the hype he had coming into the league, and I, like everyone, have trouble remembering who even plays on this team. So why are they getting the 5th seed? Dwayne Wade. Simple as that. He could even pull off lifting this team to the 4th spot.
4. Atlanta - This team can be either explosive and exciting or utterly disappointing. They go back and forth, but I see them holding off The Miami Wade's a little bit longer. In the playoffs it'll be a different story.
3. Boston - Yes, I know, I am shocked to have them down here too. But given their injury problems I don't really know if they can hold off Orlando fro them 2 spot and I don't anyone could catch Cleveland. Besides, they need to think about the playoffs and give Allen and Pierce some more rest which might mean they cough up their current position to Orlando if it means their team is better prepared for the real work in the post season.
2. Orlando - I am surprised they were able to hang on after losing all-star Nelson. But the trade for Alston was genius. Dwight, Lewis and Turk are going to keep this team rolling and I think they'll overtake Boston.
1. Cleveland - LBJ will not let them give up the top spot. They're thinking about who has home court in the finals (they are after all 28-1 there). That will push them to the best record in the east at least.
On to the playoff game predictions:
First Round:
Cleveland will destroy New Jersey, or whoever gets the 8th spot. I will barely be a competition. But, the match up at point guard would be fun to watch at least with Williams and Harris playing against each other.
Orlando will beat Philly, but not as easily as one would think. Philly plays with a lot of energy and surprised everyone last year when they almost knocked out Detroit. But eventually Dwight will take over and Orlando will win in 6.
Boston and Detroit will fight an epic battle just like they did a year before. Detroit is dangerous now that they are playing their brand of ball and Boston's bench will struggle. Boston better hope they are healthy by the start of the playoffs, because it will be a dog fight. But, if the big three are ready to go Boston will take it in 7.
Dwayne Wade will do what he did in the finals a few years ago and almost single handedly win the series. Atlanta for all intents and purposes should beat the Heat, but I question their consistency and Wade will take advantage of it. I guess the other Miami players will play as well, but it will be the Wade show and Atlanta will self combust. Heat in 6 or 7.
Second Round:
In one of the greatest matchups in playoff history LBJ and Wade will duel each other and put on a show. Each one will try and one-up the other, but the difference is Lebron will have a team to back him up. Wade won't. Not to mention Cleveland will have the home court advantage. That kills any chance for Miami. Cleveland will win in 5 or 6.
Boston and Orlando will duke it out and depending on how tired the big three are it might go in the Magic's favor. But never question the heart of a champion, so I have to go with Boston barely edging out Orlando in 7 games. Their experience might trump everything Orlando seems to have going for them.
Conference Finals:
Boston will be too tired and the Cavs will be too good. Cleveland will end the back to back championship hopes of the Celtics by winning in 7 games. Home court will again be a deciding factor.
On to the west.
8. Okay, I admit it, I was a little off in my predictions in the west, and so let me try again. Dallas will get the 8th seed. Phoenix has not chance to get back into the playoff race at this point. Dallas could even get the 7th seed seeing as how Denver is doing what they always do, choking in the final, most important stretch of the season. But, it's not like Dallas has been that great. They are a very flawed team and unless Denver gives up the 7th spot, Dallas certainly isn't going to earn it.
7. Denver - Like I said, they haven't been doing too well lately. I don' think they'll lose this spot to Dallas, but they only have a half game lead so it's definitely possible.
6. New Orleans - Too inconsistent. They have the potential to be the second or third best team in the west, but only Chris Paul comes to play every night. The teams are so close in the west the Hornets could be anywhere from a 7 seed to a 3 seed. So I picked a happy medium.
5. Portland - I don't think they can win their division, but with Roy and the gang all playing hard they're going to be in the thick of things.
4. Utah - I want to put Utah in the 3 spot, but Houston has been too good and the Jazz are terrible on the road. I don't think they'll get higher than a 4 seed. But, last time I said they'd be a 7 seed (or maybe out of the playoffs all together) and they went on a tear, so maybe if I say they'll be a four seed they'll somehow get the 2 spot. Not likely though.
3. Houston - They are so much better without T-Mac it's not even funny. Well it is a little bit funny. I am surprised they have done this well. I look at their roster and besides Yao and Artest I'm not all that impressed, but they play good team ball and I think they'll hold onto the 3 spot, and possibly take over the 2 spot.
2. San Antonio - They seem to be stumbling a little at the end here, but who am I to question Duncan, Parker and Pop. If Manu comes back they'll be fine. I don't think they would fall much further than the 3rd seed.
1. LA Lakers - They are the best in the west without question. Even without Bynum. I don't think they are soft as they were last year either. But, what's going to happen with Bynum? Is he going to come back? How will that change them? Nothing is going to stop them from winning the west, but those are all good questions when you consider how they'll do in the playoffs.
First Round:
LA will impose its will on Dallas pretty comfortable, the Mavs will be lucky to win one game. They're simply outclassed. Lakers in 4 or 5.
San Antonio will handle Denver pretty easily as long as the original big three play well. Denver was impressive through most of the year, but seem to be out of gas. If the Nuggets regain their swagger it might be competitive, but the Spurs aren't going out in the first round. Spurs in 6.
Houston and New Orleans will be an interesting series. I've been a doubter of Houston all season, but they are an impressive team. Ron Ron may be crazy, but he can play and I think Yao would be difficult for the Hornets to handle. But, CP3 is one of the best in the league and even if his team doesn't play to their potential he will and that's enough to deny Yao moving beyond the first round yet again. Hornets in 6.
Utah and Portland will be an exciting series. Both teams leave everything out on the floor. But Portland's inexperience will end up costing them. Utah has been there before and Williams is always dynamite in the playoffs. While it will be a good match up, Utah will eventually win out. Plus, it's hard for opposing teams to win in Salt Lake City. Jazz in 6 or 7.
Second Round:
The Lakers are too tough, especially in places where the Jazz aren't. They have the best shooting guard in the league and if Bynum is back a much better center. The Jazz will put up more of a fight than they did last year, but it won't be enough. The Jazz have trouble on the road and are unlikely to change that tendency when they go to the staples center. LA will take it in 6.
Last time these two teams met in the post season it seemed like the Hornets were going to win the series, only to have San Antonio stun them. It won't happen again. The Hornets will have a tough time, but will eventually prevail. CP3 is that good. Hornets in 7.
Conference Finals:
No one can beat LA, at least not out west. They'll have a better team, home court advantage, and more experience in the post-season. Sure, San Antonio had all that, but the Lakers also have a much deeper bench and are far more athletic. The Lakers will cruise in 5 games to the NBA finals.
NBA FINALS:
I may have changed how they got there, but the two teams facing each other for the title will be Cleveland and LA. And guess what? I'm sticking with my prediction that Cleveland will win. Mo Williams is the Scottie Pippen LBJ needed to become the next Jordan. The Lakers will be overconfident coming off of their domination in the west and the Cavs will pounce. It'll be a hotly contested series and home court advantage may be the deciding factor, but I give the edge to Cleveland.
8. New Jersey - Call me stubborn, but I'm sticking with them. Yes, they are still ranked in 10th in the east, but they only trail by a half game and the two teams in front of them aren't exactly a lock. Milwaukee is still dealing with injuries and I don't know if they have enough to hold onto the last playoff spot. Although, I thought they would have fallen off a long time ago when Redd went out for the season. Chicago has even less of a chance in opinion. I just don't like this team. Rose is great, but Deng is still injured and I just don't like the team's roster. I would be surprised if they actually made the playoffs in front of New Jersey, Milwaukee or Charlotte. Speaking of Charlotte, I actually had a tough time not choosing them for the final spot. They've been playing very well recently and could stun everyone by grabbing the last playoff berth. Still, I had New Jersey in my last predictions and I am not ready to change my mind. They have good guard play and a great center in Lopez.
7. Philadelphia - Again, I'm sticking with the team I had here before. Why? They aren't good enough to move much further ahead. Conceivably they could beat out Detroit for the 6th seed, but Detroit has been playing better lately. I think they'll stay at the seven spot and should be happy to do so given how bad the Brand signing seems to have been.
6. Detroit - Finally a change in my predictions. They've dropped from a 4 seed to a 6 seed. While they are playing much better now that Iverson isn't starting (or playing due to injury) they aren't going to catch the teams ahead of them. They've turned a corner that might pay off in the playoffs, but I think they're stuck where they are in the playoff position.
5. Miami - The team isn't that good. Beasley has been sort of a disappointment given the hype he had coming into the league, and I, like everyone, have trouble remembering who even plays on this team. So why are they getting the 5th seed? Dwayne Wade. Simple as that. He could even pull off lifting this team to the 4th spot.
4. Atlanta - This team can be either explosive and exciting or utterly disappointing. They go back and forth, but I see them holding off The Miami Wade's a little bit longer. In the playoffs it'll be a different story.
3. Boston - Yes, I know, I am shocked to have them down here too. But given their injury problems I don't really know if they can hold off Orlando fro them 2 spot and I don't anyone could catch Cleveland. Besides, they need to think about the playoffs and give Allen and Pierce some more rest which might mean they cough up their current position to Orlando if it means their team is better prepared for the real work in the post season.
2. Orlando - I am surprised they were able to hang on after losing all-star Nelson. But the trade for Alston was genius. Dwight, Lewis and Turk are going to keep this team rolling and I think they'll overtake Boston.
1. Cleveland - LBJ will not let them give up the top spot. They're thinking about who has home court in the finals (they are after all 28-1 there). That will push them to the best record in the east at least.
On to the playoff game predictions:
First Round:
Cleveland will destroy New Jersey, or whoever gets the 8th spot. I will barely be a competition. But, the match up at point guard would be fun to watch at least with Williams and Harris playing against each other.
Orlando will beat Philly, but not as easily as one would think. Philly plays with a lot of energy and surprised everyone last year when they almost knocked out Detroit. But eventually Dwight will take over and Orlando will win in 6.
Boston and Detroit will fight an epic battle just like they did a year before. Detroit is dangerous now that they are playing their brand of ball and Boston's bench will struggle. Boston better hope they are healthy by the start of the playoffs, because it will be a dog fight. But, if the big three are ready to go Boston will take it in 7.
Dwayne Wade will do what he did in the finals a few years ago and almost single handedly win the series. Atlanta for all intents and purposes should beat the Heat, but I question their consistency and Wade will take advantage of it. I guess the other Miami players will play as well, but it will be the Wade show and Atlanta will self combust. Heat in 6 or 7.
Second Round:
In one of the greatest matchups in playoff history LBJ and Wade will duel each other and put on a show. Each one will try and one-up the other, but the difference is Lebron will have a team to back him up. Wade won't. Not to mention Cleveland will have the home court advantage. That kills any chance for Miami. Cleveland will win in 5 or 6.
Boston and Orlando will duke it out and depending on how tired the big three are it might go in the Magic's favor. But never question the heart of a champion, so I have to go with Boston barely edging out Orlando in 7 games. Their experience might trump everything Orlando seems to have going for them.
Conference Finals:
Boston will be too tired and the Cavs will be too good. Cleveland will end the back to back championship hopes of the Celtics by winning in 7 games. Home court will again be a deciding factor.
On to the west.
8. Okay, I admit it, I was a little off in my predictions in the west, and so let me try again. Dallas will get the 8th seed. Phoenix has not chance to get back into the playoff race at this point. Dallas could even get the 7th seed seeing as how Denver is doing what they always do, choking in the final, most important stretch of the season. But, it's not like Dallas has been that great. They are a very flawed team and unless Denver gives up the 7th spot, Dallas certainly isn't going to earn it.
7. Denver - Like I said, they haven't been doing too well lately. I don' think they'll lose this spot to Dallas, but they only have a half game lead so it's definitely possible.
6. New Orleans - Too inconsistent. They have the potential to be the second or third best team in the west, but only Chris Paul comes to play every night. The teams are so close in the west the Hornets could be anywhere from a 7 seed to a 3 seed. So I picked a happy medium.
5. Portland - I don't think they can win their division, but with Roy and the gang all playing hard they're going to be in the thick of things.
4. Utah - I want to put Utah in the 3 spot, but Houston has been too good and the Jazz are terrible on the road. I don't think they'll get higher than a 4 seed. But, last time I said they'd be a 7 seed (or maybe out of the playoffs all together) and they went on a tear, so maybe if I say they'll be a four seed they'll somehow get the 2 spot. Not likely though.
3. Houston - They are so much better without T-Mac it's not even funny. Well it is a little bit funny. I am surprised they have done this well. I look at their roster and besides Yao and Artest I'm not all that impressed, but they play good team ball and I think they'll hold onto the 3 spot, and possibly take over the 2 spot.
2. San Antonio - They seem to be stumbling a little at the end here, but who am I to question Duncan, Parker and Pop. If Manu comes back they'll be fine. I don't think they would fall much further than the 3rd seed.
1. LA Lakers - They are the best in the west without question. Even without Bynum. I don't think they are soft as they were last year either. But, what's going to happen with Bynum? Is he going to come back? How will that change them? Nothing is going to stop them from winning the west, but those are all good questions when you consider how they'll do in the playoffs.
First Round:
LA will impose its will on Dallas pretty comfortable, the Mavs will be lucky to win one game. They're simply outclassed. Lakers in 4 or 5.
San Antonio will handle Denver pretty easily as long as the original big three play well. Denver was impressive through most of the year, but seem to be out of gas. If the Nuggets regain their swagger it might be competitive, but the Spurs aren't going out in the first round. Spurs in 6.
Houston and New Orleans will be an interesting series. I've been a doubter of Houston all season, but they are an impressive team. Ron Ron may be crazy, but he can play and I think Yao would be difficult for the Hornets to handle. But, CP3 is one of the best in the league and even if his team doesn't play to their potential he will and that's enough to deny Yao moving beyond the first round yet again. Hornets in 6.
Utah and Portland will be an exciting series. Both teams leave everything out on the floor. But Portland's inexperience will end up costing them. Utah has been there before and Williams is always dynamite in the playoffs. While it will be a good match up, Utah will eventually win out. Plus, it's hard for opposing teams to win in Salt Lake City. Jazz in 6 or 7.
Second Round:
The Lakers are too tough, especially in places where the Jazz aren't. They have the best shooting guard in the league and if Bynum is back a much better center. The Jazz will put up more of a fight than they did last year, but it won't be enough. The Jazz have trouble on the road and are unlikely to change that tendency when they go to the staples center. LA will take it in 6.
Last time these two teams met in the post season it seemed like the Hornets were going to win the series, only to have San Antonio stun them. It won't happen again. The Hornets will have a tough time, but will eventually prevail. CP3 is that good. Hornets in 7.
Conference Finals:
No one can beat LA, at least not out west. They'll have a better team, home court advantage, and more experience in the post-season. Sure, San Antonio had all that, but the Lakers also have a much deeper bench and are far more athletic. The Lakers will cruise in 5 games to the NBA finals.
NBA FINALS:
I may have changed how they got there, but the two teams facing each other for the title will be Cleveland and LA. And guess what? I'm sticking with my prediction that Cleveland will win. Mo Williams is the Scottie Pippen LBJ needed to become the next Jordan. The Lakers will be overconfident coming off of their domination in the west and the Cavs will pounce. It'll be a hotly contested series and home court advantage may be the deciding factor, but I give the edge to Cleveland.
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